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01/22/07Just A Few Politically Useful Assumptions
01/14/07Man, George and the boys just don’t quit, do they. McClatchy (01.14.07), via Gilliard:
“President Bush and his aides, explaining their reasons for sending more American troops to Iraq, are offering an incomplete, oversimplified and possibly untrue version of events there that raises new questions about the accuracy of the administration’s statements about Iraq.”
From the speech last Wednesday: “‘[Al-Qaida terrorists and Sunni insurgents ] blew up one of the holiest shrines in Shia Islam – the Golden Mosque of Samarra – in a calculated effort to provoke Iraq’s Shia population to retaliate,’ Bush said. ‘Their strategy worked. Radical Shia elements, some supported by Iran, formed death squads. And the result was a vicious cycle of sectarian violence that continues today.'”
“That version of events helps to justify Bush’s ‘new way forward’ in Iraq, in which U.S. forces will largely target Sunni insurgents and leave it to Iraq’s U.S.-backed Shiite government to – perhaps – disarm its allies in Shiite militias and death squads.”
“But the president’s account understates by at least 15 months when Shiite death squads began targeting Sunni politicians and clerics. It also ignores the role that Iranian-backed Shiite groups had in death squad activities prior to the Samarra bombing.”
“Blaming the start of sectarian violence in Iraq on the Golden Dome bombing risks policy errors because it underestimates the depth of sectarian hatred in Iraq and overlooks the conflict’s root causes. The Bush account also fails to acknowledge that Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite groups stoked the conflict.”
“Much like the administration’s pre-war claims about Saddam’s alleged ties to al-Qaida and purported nuclear weapons program, the claims about the bombing of the Shiite mosque in Samarra ignore inconvenient facts and highlight questionable but politically useful assumptions.”
Rope-A-Dope
01/14/07Laying low ’til the heat’s off. McClatchy (01.13.0):
“Mahdi Army militia members have stopped wearing their black uniforms, hidden their weapons and abandoned their checkpoints in an apparent effort to lower their profile in Baghdad in advance of the arrival of U.S. reinforcements.
‘We have explicit directions to keep a low profile . . . not to confront, not to be dragged into a fight and to calm things down,’ said one official who received the orders from the anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.”
Mahdi Army lowers its profile, anticipating arrival of U.S. troops
“Militia members say al-Sadr ordered them to stand down shortly after President George Bush’s announcement that the U.S. would send 17,500 more American troops to Baghdad to work alongside the Iraqi security forces.”
The plan: Muqtada really works hard to reduce the violence for three months or so. By then, George can then say that the escalation worked, Iraq’s on the yellow brick road to democracy, and we can finally get the hell out.
Once we’re gone, Muqtada and the boys come off the ropes, and take over.
The Best Congress Money Can Buy
01/12/07Washington Post (01.12.07):
“Before taking control of the House last week, Democratic leaders briefly considered proposing a new government-run prescription drug program as a way to reduce seniors’ drug costs, according to Democratic aides and lawmakers involved in the deliberations.
But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her allies chose a far less ambitious plan — to require the government to negotiate for lower Medicare drug prices — that will come to a vote today. They stepped back largely out of concern that the pharmaceutical industry would stall a complex change, denying them a quick victory on a top consumer-oriented priority, aides say.
“They had reason to be wary: Despite years of lopsidedly favoring GOP lawmakers with campaign cash and other benefits, the drug lobby continues to wield tremendous power in the Democratic-controlled Congress. It also still has the backing of the White House: President Bush said yesterday that he will veto the Democratic proposal if it lands on his desk.”
“To strengthen their position, drug firms and their trade groups have been transforming their Washington operations by hiring top Democratic lobbyists to gain access to new committee chairmen, bolstering Democratic political donations and spending millions on public relations campaigns to overcome an image, indicated in recent surveys, that the industry puts profits ahead of patients.”
“Even longtime industry nemeses like Rep. Fortney ‘Pete’ Stark (D-Calif.), chairman of a House health panel, are impressed. ‘They’re pretty potent,’ he said this week. ‘They’re not bush-leaguers when it comes to spending money and lobbying.'”
Thanks George
01/12/07NYTimes (01.12.07):
“President Bush came to this Georgia military base looking for a friendly audience to sell his new Iraq strategy. But his lunchtime talk received a restrained response from soldiers who clapped politely but showed little of the wild enthusiasm that they ordinarily shower on the commander in chief.
Under the new plan, more than 20,000 additional troops will be sent to Iraq, some from Fort Benning who learned Thursday that they would go earlier than expected.”
Some of the folks down there have already done two tours in Iraq. On Thursday, some found out that in March, they’d get to go back again, “about two months ahead of schedule, as a result of the president’s plan.”
Yippee.
How did the troops feel about it? “It was difficult to know how the soldiers felt about returning to the war zone, or the president’s new Iraq plan. Though Mr. Bush’s lunch was open to the press, the base commander, Maj. Gen. Walter Wojdakowski, would not let the troops in attendance talk to reporters. His spokeswoman said the commander wanted ‘the focus to be on the president.'”
And because they would’ve told the reporters the whole thing’s a massive clusterfuck.
Lock And Load, Boys And Girls
01/11/07AP (01.11.07), via Washington Monthly:
“Iraq’s prime minister has told Shiite militiamen to surrender their weapons or face an all-out assault, part of a commitment U.S. President George W. Bush outlined to bring violence under control with a more aggressive Iraqi Army and 21,500 additional American troops.”
32%
01/11/07AP (01.11.07):
“Iraq is a drag on Bush’s overall job approval rating, too. That rating is at 32 percent in the latest survey, a new low in AP-Ipsos polling.”
“Just 35 percent of Americans think it was right for the United States to go to war, another record low in AP polling and a reversal from two years ago when two-thirds of Americans thought it was the correct move.”
Coming To A Town Near You
01/11/07Bloomberg (01.11.07):
“Toyota Motor Corp., struggling to meet U.S. demand and facing a possible political backlash over its imports from Japan, may build as many as five North American assembly plants in the next 10 years, according to people familiar with the plans.
The Japanese automaker will build at least one factory in the southeastern U.S. and one in Mexico, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the company hasn’t discussed the matter publicly.”
“Five more plants would give Toyota 12 in North America, about the same number Ford Motor Co. will have after its current round of closings. Based on Toyota’s recent investments, five factories would create about 10,000 jobs and cost $5 billion.”
How does Toyota continue to be so successful? Case in point: in the paint shop at Georgetown, Kentucky.
Uh Oh
01/10/07NYTimes (01.10.07):
“In some of his sharpest words of warning to Iran, Mr. Bush accused the Iranian government of ‘providing material support for attacks on American troops’ and vowed to ‘seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies.’
He left deliberately vague the question of whether those operations would be limited to Iraq or conducted elsewhere, and said he had ordered the deployment of a new aircraft carrier strike group to the region, where it is in easy reach of Iranian territory.”
“While Mr. Bush has previously vowed to work diplomatically, largely inside the United Nations to stop Iran’s nuclear program, in this speech he said nothing about diplomacy.”
Arkin (01.10.07):
“President Bush implicitly accused the two of providing sanctuary and material support for violent elements in Iraq. There is an ominous element here: When the President pledged to ‘seek out and destroy the networks supporting our enemies in Iraq,’ to me, that means the threat of strikes on targets in those two countries.”
On The Hot Seat
01/10/07It took a while, but it looks like the Feds are finally turning up the heat on old Steven. Washington Post (01.10.07):
“Federal prosecutors have notified a former deputy secretary of the interior, J. Steven Griles, that he is a target in the public corruption investigation of Jack Abramoff’s lobbying activities, sources knowledgeable about the probe said.
The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that among the possible criminal charges being investigated is whether Griles made false statements to the Senate Indian Affairs Committee in 2005 about job discussions Abramoff initiated while Griles was deputy secretary.”
“Justice Department prosecutors met with Griles on Friday to outline possible charges. The investigation has examined donations made by Abramoff’s Indian tribal clients to an environmental advocacy group run by Italia Federici, who was involved with Griles socially, the sources said. Also under scrutiny are donations made to Federici’s group by energy and mining companies, the sources said.”
“E-mails released last year by the Senate Indian Affairs Committee showed that Griles had more than half a dozen contacts with Abramoff or with Federici, head of the Council of Republicans for Environmental Advocacy, who was working as the lobbyist’s go-between to Griles. Griles has said that he never tried to intercede on behalf of Abramoff’s clients.”
The Indian Affairs Committee, in a report issued after a series of investigative hearings, said that further inquiry ‘appears warranted’ into the ‘veracity’ of Federici’s public testimony. Federici’s testimony before the committee included discussions of her relationship with Abramoff, his tribal clients and Griles.”
Turning It Up A Notch
01/10/07McClatchy (01.09.07):
“The Bush administration turned up the heat Tuesday on Iran, barring one of its largest state-owned banks from doing business with U.S. citizens, residents, banks or businesses because of its involvement in Iran’s nuclear program.
The Treasury Department Office of Foreign Assets Control’s designation of Bank Sepah as a ‘facilitator’ in Iran’s nuclear program – the second such U.S. action [ed. – last September, Bank Saderat was the first] in less than six months – will encourage banks across the globe to curtail their lending to Iran. A lending squeeze would hit Iran’s vital oil sector particularly hard.”
“The Treasury Department’s announcement came a day before President Bush is to announce his new plan for Iraq, and appeared to be further evidence that Bush will continue to pressure Iran rather than engaging it diplomatically, as the bipartisan Iraq Study Group recommended last year.”
“A State Department official, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly and did so on the condition of anonymity, said the Bush administration planned to pursue unilateral actions that didn’t require further U.N. action.”
“The administration ‘got as far as they could’ via the U.N. route and the December resolution was ‘far from satisfactory,’ the official said.”
How well might these sanctions work in the long run? Asia Times (11.06.06):
“Whether economic sanctions against Tehran are imposed within or outside the UN, such sanctions would inevitably lead to a reduction in Iran’s oil exports. The only question is how sharply oil exports would be cut.”
France, Britain, Germany and Japan import a substantial amount of oil from Iran, and “Iran would be loath to export oil to customers in countries where its assets are frozen, because revenue from oil sales could be frozen too.”
Which means it’s only a matter of time before they all figure out a way to circumvent the sanctions so they can continue to buy Iranian oil.
Here’s the kicker though. “In addition to France, Britain Germany and Japan, China also imports a significant amount of oil from Iran. With vast energy-related investments and investment contracts in Iran, China is very unlikely to apply any sanctions on Tehran. On the contrary, China may seize the opportunity delivered by surplus Iranian oil to cement much larger long-term oil-import contracts with Iran.”
May seize? How about already have? Financial Times (12.20.06):
“The National Iranian Oil Company has signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s CNOOC to develop the North Pars gas field. The memorandum, if it turns into a final deal, would bring $16bn worth of Chinese investments for the initial part of any deal, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Wednesday.”
Never fear: the US is on top of it. Daily Times Pakistan (01.10.07):
“The US has urged China to reconsider a reported multibillion dollar natural gas deal with Iran amid world efforts to sanction Tehran for its nuclear programmes, an Embassy spokeswoman said on Tuesday.”
We’ve urged them to reconsider? Well then. Guess that’s that.
Also note that the development deal with China involves the North Pars field. The South Pars field is being developed by, among others, Halliburton, through a subsidiary “registered in the Cayman Islands as Halliburton Products and Services.”
Pretty tricky, eh?
The Prize
01/7/07Democracy in Iraq? Fuck that. Oil’s what it’s all about. The Independent (01.07.07):
“Iraq’s massive oil reserves, the third-largest in the world, are about to be thrown open for large-scale exploitation by Western oil companies under a controversial law which is expected to come before the Iraqi parliament within days.
The US government has been involved in drawing up the law, a draft of which has been seen by The Independent on Sunday. It would give big oil companies such as BP, Shell and Exxon 30-year contracts to extract Iraqi crude and allow the first large-scale operation of foreign oil interests in the country since the industry was nationalised in 1972.”
“The huge potential prizes for Western firms will give ammunition to critics who say the Iraq war was fought for oil. They point to statements such as one from Vice-President Dick Cheney, who said in 1999, while he was still chief executive of the oil services company Halliburton, that the world would need an additional 50 million barrels of oil a day by 2010. ‘So where is the oil going to come from?… The Middle East, with two-thirds of the world’s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies,’ he said.”
This is the Iraqi half of the grand plan. Here is the Iranian half. LATimes (01.07.07):
“Iran’s oil industry has raked in record amounts of cash during three years of high oil prices. But a new U.S. campaign to dry up financing for oil and natural gas development poses a threat to the republic’s ability to continue exporting oil over the next two decades, many analysts say.”
Yep. That’s the ticket. Strangle Iran slowly and make up the difference with Iraqi and Saudi production.
“If Iran were to suddenly stop exporting its 2.6 million barrels of oil a day, such as in the event of a military strike, world oil prices probably would skyrocket. But a gradual decline might be offset by other OPEC members, analysts say, particularly as Iraq increases its oil production and Saudi Arabia carries out plans for significant increases in its production capacity.”
This is a very big deal for Iran. “The efforts by the United States and its allies over the last few months to persuade international banks and oil companies to pull out of Iran threaten dozens of projects, including development of Iran’s two massive new oil fields that could expand output by 800,000 barrels a day over the next four years.”
There has been a fair degree of success. “‘Many European banks which had accepted financing some oil industries projects have recently canceled them,’ (Iran’s deputy oil minister for international affairs Mohammed Hadi) Nejad-Hosseinian said.”
“In addition, banks are no longer granting letters of credit for delivery of some supplies, ministry officials say. And as nations such as Japan begin to back out of Iran oil development under U.S. pressure, the government in Tehran is being forced to dig into its own reserve funds to get crucial new projects off the ground.”
Domestically, the Treasury and Justice Departments have put the word out. “Envoys from the Treasury Department have approached international banks and companies, reminding them of Iran’s record of financing militant Islamic organizations such as Hamas, in the Palestinian territories, and Hezbollah, in Lebanon, through the banking system and its defiance of U.N. resolutions on nonproliferation, and warning that investing in such a country may not be a good business risk.”
“Simultaneously, the Justice Department reportedly has opened investigations of several banks to determine whether investments in Iran violated U.S. sanctions laws. In late 2005, Dutch bank ABN Amro agreed to pay $80 million in fines stemming in part from improper transactions with Iran through its subsidiary in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.”
Hearing you loud and clear, boss. “UBS Bank and Credit Suisse of Switzerland recently announced they were suspending most new business with Iran, and British-based HSBC said it would no longer accept dollar transactions from within Iran.”
“‘Banks are constantly doing risk assessments about what kind of business they want to be involved in,” Stuart Levey, Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a telephone interview.”
If you know what I mean, you Jolly Banker, you.
Underfunded By Three Billion
01/6/07Bloomberg (01.05.07):
“Delta Air Lines Inc.’s retirement plan for 13,000 active and former pilots, underfunded by $3 billion, was taken over by the U.S. agency that insures employee pensions, allowing the airline to exit bankruptcy.
Delta, the third-biggest U.S. airline, plans to end court protection from creditors in the first half of this year, after rejecting an $8.42 billion merger bid from rival US Airways.”
“A federal judge said Delta couldn’t end its bankruptcy unless the pilot plan was terminated.”
“The plan, which ended on Sept. 2, has $1.7 billion in assets to cover more than $4.7 billion in benefit liabilities for pilots at Atlanta-based Delta, the largest U.S. airline in bankruptcy, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. said today in a statement.”
The PBGC, on our behalf, has already picked up the tab for “$6.6 billion of United’s pension liabilities and $3 billion of US Airways’.”
Isn’t that special.
All Your Mail Are Belong To Us
01/4/07And we don’t need no steenkin’ warrants, either. NY Daily News (01.04.07), via Talk Left:
“President Bush has quietly claimed sweeping new powers to open Americans’ mail without a judge’s warrant, the Daily News has learned.
The President asserted his new authority when he signed a postal reform bill into law on Dec. 20. Bush then issued a ‘signing statement’ that declared his right to open people’s mail under emergency conditions.”
“That claim is contrary to existing law and contradicted the bill he had just signed, say experts who have reviewed it.”
“‘The [Bush] signing statement claims authority to open domestic mail without a warrant, and that would be new and quite alarming,’ said Kate Martin, director of the Center for National Security Studies in Washington.”
“A top Senate Intelligence Committee aide promised, ‘It’s something we’re going to look into.'”
It Went Well
01/4/07CNN (01.04.06), via Huffington:
“On his first day in Congress, Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minnesota, the first Muslim elected to Congress, finally met the Republican who criticized him for his decision to use the Koran at his ceremonial swearing in.
Ellison asked another Democratic member to introduce him to Rep Virgil Goode, R-Virgina, who spoke out against Ellison in a letter to constituents last month. Ellison told CNN that he approached Goode on the House floor and the brief meeting went well.”
“‘I shook his hand and shook mine. We greeted each other.’ Ellison asked Goode to grab a cup of coffee with him soon and Goode accepted.”
KNOBBOY 